Lim Jyue (lim_jyue@pacific.net.sg)
Wed, 21 Jun 2000 03:11:00 +0800


At 20:28 06/19/2000 -0700, -Z- wrote:
>That blade cuts both ways. To the Federation High Command, the colonies were
>expendable.

        So the Sides have no love for the Federation, but viewed the Zeon
Archduchy as the weaker side of the two in the OYW, and hence would not have
supported Zeon directly in the OYW?

>During those six to eight months, both sides had been reduced to half their
>original population, which means that the Federation gave as good as it got,
>percentage wise.

        Blackeagle was kind enough to point this out to me, but I still have
no idea when this reduction of Zeon's population took place. For Zeon to
lose half of its population, the Federation must have staged an attack on
Side 3 proper; I don't think military losses could account for half of
Zeon's losses. But I have never heard of a Federation counterattack within
the first half-year or so of the OYW. Was there any direct reference to such
an action?

>But the status quo had been broken and the Zeon appeared to be winning. The
>surviving colonies might adopt a neutralist stance wherever possible, hedging
>their bets against either outcome.

        What you are implying here is that Zeon never had a good chance of
winning the war -- it depended heavily on shock to paralyse the Federation
and forcing them to come to the negotiation tables. This did happen, but
Revil got loose before any treaty was signed.

        This is perhaps the most important mistake Zeon made: letting Revil
get away to gather support against Zeon. Once the Federation refused to
surrender, it became a matter of time before Zeon was swamped by Federation
numbers.

        The treaty signed also hammered another nail into Zeon's coffin;
without the use of NBC weapons as an equalizer, Zeon cannot hope to match
the manpower and material of the Federation. Without this equalizer, there
was no way that Zeon could have won, especially without the other Sides'
direct support.

        In short, Zeon needed to win the war in the first week, and using
every dirty trick in the book; after that, Federation mass would slowly
grind Zeon away, although that took all the way until CCA -- a decade or so
-- for the Federation to pretty much stamp Zeon's name into the ground.

        The parallel of this to Japan's involvement in WW2 isn't lost to me.

-------------
Lim Jyue
ICQ: 24737555

I am careful not to confuse excellence with perfection.
Excellence I can reach for; perfection is God's business.

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