Sun, 23 Apr 2000 02:55:44 -0400 (EDT)
garrick lee wrote:
> for the latter, as far as i know, the chinese didn't
> blink an eye in tiananmen (ouch),
The real histroy is pretty complicated (and as yet incomplete). But one
of the reason it escalated into such a tragedy was that the local
regiments refused to follow commands to kick the demonstrators' butt early
on. So the students got bolder and finally Beijing brought in troops from
the far-away provinces who didn't know Mandarin, and were not aware of the
political debates. They were fed the party line and moved in and
robotically killed the innocents.
> so tossing a nuke or
> two on a foreign enemy wouldn't faze them. nevermind
Despite all the idiotic chest-beating by the People's "Liberation" Army,
the political will to start a fight, much less a nuclear fight, against
anyone, EVEN TAIWAN, is just not there. And as China opens up more and
more, the will to fight anyone tougher than four-eyed hunger-striking
students will be further eroded.
And Desert Storm showed how wimpy those Chinese missles are. If they fire
them nukes from the mainland, it will be incredible that they actually hit
the right island. And even if the missles hit some islands, the warheads
are more likely to fissle than to detonate.
> that US might retaliate. a war of attrition is
> something china wouldn't care less about, with it's
> billions of people. or am i being too pessimistic
1. a war of attrition depends on having a supply of men willing to die. We
had that when we were fighting the corrupt warlords and Japan. And in
Korea, most Chinese still had complete faith in Communism and Chiarman-God
Mao. But in today's China, most Chinese's concern is when will they
afford the Dolby DTS home theatre, not some trifling island halfway out to
nowhere. They will sing the anthem and wave the flag and throw rocks at
the American embassy, but if you ask them to lay down a few bucks, much
less their lives, to fight a war on a far away island, FORGET IT!
(but if war does come to China's soil, these selfish cowards will put up a
damn good fight.)
2. a war of attrition always favour the side defending their homeland,
witness Vietnam (well that was more of a one-sided attrition :).
> while i never knew the depth of skill of our elite
> corps (until you mentioned it), downplaying their
Invading an island nation is tremendously difficult. England, Japan,
Philippines, Cuba have all gone through trials by fire. The few examples
of successful island invasions are Japan taking most of East Asia in WW2
and US taking Granada. Hmm I guess Rome taking Britiania too.
Patient ID: #1
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