Blackeagle (cdupchurch@hotmail.com)
Sat, 22 Apr 2000 10:22:29 MST


<SNIP>

> > make a small retreat. Even if the US/Jap/Russia/OZ don't get in the
>way,
> > even if China nuke Manilla (highly doubtful they can aim that good), it
> > just won't happen. It takes a lot to invade a bunch of islands in the
> > middle of a big sea, and China just doesn't have it.
> >
>
>China doesn't need to nuke anybody. The have one of the largest mechanized
>armies on the globe. They just need to roll in and take the Phillipines.
>I
>said two days because I figured, vaguely, that it would take one day to
>assemble all their gear off-shore. Maybe it takes 4 days. Logistics is a
>bitch. But they have enough Russian bought and knockoff weapons to take
>any
>piddling resistance that the Phillipines could hope to put up. They can
>take anybody in the region. The only thing that saves Japan and our other
>allies is that they're our allies.

Before anyone gets carried away (Oops, too late :-) ...

Right now, the most likely cause of a war between China and the Phillipines
is their dispute over the Spratly islands. If that dispute did erupt into
war, my guess is it would probably remain limited to air and sea combat
(with perhaps some ground combat on the islands themselves). In this case
China would almost certanly win. I think that China would refrain from
invading the Phillipines proper mainly because that would certanly bring the
U.S. into the war. On the other hand, the U.S. might not intervene
militarily in a more limited air/sea conflict, espically if we percieved
that the conflict wat teh Phillipine's fault.

As for the U.S.'s other allies in the region, Japan could probably
successfully resist a Chineese invasion attempt. This, of course, assumes a
non-nuclear confrontation. In the event of nuclear attack on Japan, I think
that the U.S. would definitely retaliate. More importatly, the Japanese
government probably believes they would be protected by the U.S. nuclear
deterrent, which is a very good thing. The minute Japan belives the U.S.
would not act to defend them from a Chineese or Russian nuclear attack they
have to consider developing their own nuclear deterrent.

________________________________
Chris Upchurch a.k.a. Blackeagle
cdupchurch@hotmail.com

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